HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
With the first half of 2026 wrapped, Microsoft (MSFT) is officially the Mag 7's biggest loser this year. With a June loss of nearly 20%, it just notched one of its worst months since the dot-com bust.
The tech giant has gone from $4T club to black sheep of the AI trade in record time. But the biggest knock against MSFT may be that its loudest bull is now famed short-seller Michael Burry. Oh, how the turntables…
🟩 | US stocks rose today, cementing the DJIA’s best first half in five years, as chip stocks continued to bounce back, bringing the SMH up more than 80% YTD.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Abivax (ABVX) surged some 40% after new ulcerative colitis data showed malignancy rates in line with expectations.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WILL BEER SHIPMENTS TOP 110M?
Constellation Brands (STZ) reports after the bell today. The big question on investors’ minds: can Modelo and Corona prove beer is back?
Analysts see sales sliding 5% to $2.39B with margins still under pressure. Kalshi traders are putting a hard number on how many cases actually shipped.
Bottoms up. 🍻
Market Movers
AEROVIRONMENT, STRATEGY, AIR PRODUCTS
📈 | AeroVironment (AVAV) topped earnings and revenue estimates.
📉 | Strategy (MSTR) gave back much of Monday's rebound as Bitcoin slid.
📈 | Air Products (APD) scrapped its Louisiana Clean Energy Complex.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
BLOCK PARTY
Stock Spotlight
Looking for more upside? Street Sheet Research members get 1 stock pick from the Top 10% of analysts with 100%+ implied upside every month. Subscribe today to get July’s pick tomorrow.
Double Or Nothing
Piper Sandler firm double-upgraded Block to Overweight and lifted its price target to $100, betting the beaten-down payments name has plenty of room to run.
Analyst Bill Carcache says valuation compression has opened a selective opportunity, and the stock no longer reflects how durable Block's earnings trajectory has become.
Lean Machine
Carcache sees double-digit growth as achievable without heroic assumptions, as Square and Cash App get sharper at monetizing their users.
Block has also shown more expense discipline, and emerging AI-driven efficiencies should turn those gross profit gains into faster operating income, he argues.
Street Cred
Wall Street is already on board. Of the 44 analysts covering the Jack Dorsey-founded company, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Shares have climbed over the past year, and the stock popped after Block halved its headcount in late February. Sometimes cutting costs really does pay off.
Do you own any shares of Block (XYZ)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
⚖️ The Supreme Court ruled that central banker Lisa Cook can keep her job, but expanded presidential power to fire other independent agency heads.
🤖 Amazon's (AMZN) AWS is pouring $1B into a new unit that embeds thousands of engineers inside customers to build AI systems.
🚗 Ford (F) is recalling more than 741K vehicles over a transmission flaw that can damage the park system.
🥩 The USDA will pay smaller meatpackers up to $500M to keep slaughtering cattle as a herd shortage drives record beef prices.
🏭 Samsung and SK Hynix will invest a combined $518B to build a new chipmaking hub in southwestern South Korea to meet surging AI demand.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “Much of the government procurement process relies on long standing relationships and reputation. It is a risk to assume a new supplier will be able to break into this system without a long buildout of occasional small contracts.”
