Every AI pitch comes with a potential revenue backlog. SB Energy's also comes with a very long wait.

The data center developer, which could go public as soon as this month, has $430B of potential revenue lined up, mostly with OpenAI as the customer. About 82% of it, however, won't arrive for at least eight years.

Until then, the plan is roughly $174B of mostly debt-funded capex on data centers that aren't operational yet. Public buyers are signing up for the construction years at a developer backed by SoftBank (SFTBY).

Next big IPO? Only if AI investors are big on patience…

— Brooks & The Street Sheet Team

What: Hermès (HESAY) spent two decades building credibility as a serious watchmaker. Its handbag shoppers keep spending it. But too many of its watches look like Birkin bait, bought to win a bag allocation, then flipped. The bag that sells the watches is also sinking them.

Why: Secondhand supply does the damage. The RealReal (REAL) has sold 3x as many pristine Hermès watches as Chanel over five years, despite similar annual volumes, per Morgan Stanley (MS) estimates. Mint Hermès pieces resell at 41% of sticker, down from 51% four years ago. A pristine Rolex recoups full price, a mint Cartier (CFRUY) two-thirds.

What Else: The timing stings. Watchmaking's most credible houses are struggling to sell to women, with Audemars Piguet saying only 20% of its sales go to them. Fashion houses design for women, but lack collector cred, so Chanel, Hermès, and Louis Vuitton (LVMUY) are building mechanical supply chains. Hermès, which has cut output by about 75% and sells a perpetual calendar above $50K, is arguably furthest along.

Watch: Whether Hermès's resale retention stops sliding from 41%. As long as a brand-new piece sells secondhand at 60% off, the watch unit's toughest competitor is its own clientele.

What: Takeover targets are supposed to trade at a discount to the deal price. Personalis (PSNL) went the other way, hitting $18 against the $16.25 a share Tempus AI (TEM) agreed to pay.

Why: Personalized cancer vaccines need each patient's tumor sequenced. Personalis has done that work for the Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) program, which posted positive late-stage melanoma results. BTIG projects annual sequencing revenue could top $600M if the vaccine expands into lung, bladder, and kidney cancers. Tempus's proxy showed Personalis had fielded multiple suitors, including a verbal $17-a-share proposal.

What Else: The longer game is minimal residual disease testing, which scans the blood for tumor DNA after treatment. Natera (NTRA), a $45B giant, dominates it, and investor Bioaxia argues whoever sequences a tumor is best placed to run years of follow-up tests. Tempus needs that upgrade at near 6x expected sales, against about 13x for some faster-growing peers.

Watch: The Personalis shareholder vote. Tempus's 12% stake and Merck's 13% commitment cover roughly a quarter of it. The other three-quarters hold the leverage, and they've read the proxy.

What: The Texas Stock Exchange finally has a listing worth ringing a bell over. Energy Transfer (ET) and several affiliated companies will move their listings from the NYSE (ICE) to the Dallas upstart.

Why: The Texas exchange is selling itself as the cheaper, friendlier venue. CEO James Lee argues the exchange business is ripe for disruption, and that Texas's business-friendly laws and lower fees will lure companies.

What Else: Energy Transfer's Kelcy Warren is a major investor in the Texas exchange, which gave him an incentive to move. Argus Research still called the listings major wins, but history favors the incumbents. The NYSE and Nasdaq (NDAQ) dominate listings and trading and have fended off upstart exchanges for years.

Watch: The Texas exchange's share of US stock trading, which is still under 1% since its July launch. Listings make headlines, but volume decides whether anyone at the NYSE loses sleep.