HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET
In yesterday’s intro, we promised clarity.
Here it is: Street Sheet Research just got cleaner.
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The riddle is solved. (More details below.)
But the market, meanwhile, is not.
🟨 | US stocks wavered today as inflation jumped, consumer sentiment slumped, and investors warily regarded the uneasy US-Iran truce.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: CoreWeave (CRWV) surged after announcing a multi-year compute agreement with Anthropic.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) sank on inverse fears that the firm’s AI tools will disrupt cybersecurity business models.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHICH COMPANIES WILL THE US TAKE A STAKE IN THIS YEAR?
President Trump called Palantir (PLTR) a great warfighter on Truth Social this week. Some investors took it as a play to stay the stock’s slide: it has plummeted around 14% over the past 5 days. Meanwhile, renowned Big Short bear Michael Burry disagrees, still holding puts and calling the stock wildly overvalued.
Could Trump’s social media bluster translate into a more tangible act of support? Prediction markets are torn. Odds of the US taking a government stake in Palantir sit at just $0.14 on the dollar, trailing fellow defense firms Anduril and Lockheed Martin (LMT), which both sit around $0.17.
Market Movers
MARVELL, SERVICENOW, TSMC
📈 | Marvell Technology (MRVL) saw a third day of sharp gains as investors rotated into chip stocks.
📈 | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported record Q1 revenue, up 35% year-over-year.
📈 | Organon (OGN) popped more than 25% after India's Sun Pharma reportedly offered $12B to acquire the women's health drugmaker.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
BATTLEFIELD PROMOTION
Stock Spotlight
Over the Target
Analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated a Buy on Elbit Systems and raised his price target, calling the company a unique way to gain diverse exposure across the defense sector.
The thesis is that demand for battlefield-ready technology is not slowing down. Elbit has already put in a strong run in 2026.
Golden Dome Economics
Epstein pins the bull case on two businesses.
Elbit's land technology segment is expected to grow 30% this year as demand for munitions replenishment builds.
Meanwhile, its intelligence, surveillance, and electronic warfare business is projected to grow 15%, driven by high-power laser systems that support the proposed US "Golden Dome" initiative.
Together, they form what Epstein describes as a battlefield-tested portfolio with the global capacity of a major defense prime.
Ahead of the Curve
The stock trades at more than 60x forward earnings, above most defense peers. But Epstein argues the premium reflects Elbit's agility and global reach.
The company has more than doubled in the past year. On Wall Street, battlefield results tend to carry more weight than forecasts.
Do you own any shares of Elbit Systems (ESLT)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
📊 | Consumer price inflation rose a sharp 0.9% month-over-month in March, and 3.3% YoY, the largest annual increase since May 2024, reflecting surging oil prices.
Kalshi Odds: “CPI in April?”
Above 0.3%: 88%
Above 0.4%: 67%
Above 0.5%: 39%
Above 0.6%: 21%
Above 0.7%: 11%
📉 | The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 47.6 in April, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%.
🛢️ | Iranian attacks on a key Saudi pipeline and multiple production facilities have cut the kingdom's oil output by about 1.3M barrels per day.
🤖 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convened with major US bank CEOs to discuss cyber risks posed by Anthropic's new Claude Mythos Preview AI model.
💊 | Revolution Medicines (RVMD) expects to release Phase 3 trial results for a targeted pancreatic cancer pill taken by former US Senator Ben Sasse, whose tumors have reportedly shrunk 76% since starting treatment.
THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Capital One (COF)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I’m holding — “The article says the shares are ‘deep in the red for the year.’ That's true, but the shares are actually up from a year ago. ”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “If I buy some, to ‘What's in your wallet?’, I can say, ‘Capital One stock’.”
STREET SHEET RESEARCH MEMBERS ONLY
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