HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET

OpenAI turned Sora into a $1 billion Disney (DIS) deal and a TikTok-style social layer for AI video. Then it shut the whole thing down.

At $15 million a day in inference costs and a growing pile of legal threats from rights holders, it turns out OpenAI didn’t learn the evergreen lesson of Silicon Valley: never pivot to video.

  • 🟩 | US stocks ticked up today after the US sent its first pass at a peace proposal to Iran.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Braze (BRZE) surged after Q4 revenue of $205M beat estimates and current-quarter guidance topped the Street.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Generac (GNRC) fell after its 2028 EBITDA margin forecast came in below Wall Street's expectations.

— Brooks & Cas

MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales

WHEN WILL SPACEX OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE AN IPO?

SpaceX could file its IPO prospectus with regulators as early as this week, per a new report, with advisers eyeing a raise of more than $75B. That would rank it among the largest public offerings in history.

Kalshi traders have been busy pricing exactly when Musk's rocket company finally makes the leap. Notably, at the time of writing, the odds of an announcement before April 1 are just 3%.

Market Movers

ARM, INTUITIVE MACHINES, KB HOME

📈 | Arm Holdings (ARM) unveiled its first in-house chip, projected to net $15B in revenue by 2031.

📈 | Intuitive Machines (LUNR) won a $180M NASA contract to deliver seven science and technology payloads to the moon.

📉 | KB Home (KBH) missed fiscal Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and guided below consensus on current-quarter housing deliveries.

📈 | EchoStar (SATS) rose on a report that SpaceX could file for an IPO as early as this week.

📈 | Chewy (CHWY) guided current-quarter net sales above consensus and raised its full-year sales outlook.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

DUMPLINGS FOR DOLLARS

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: Five Below (FIVE)

  • Firm: Wolfe Research

  • Current Price: $233

  • Price Target: $291

  • Implied Upside: 25%

A Bao-ld Strategy

The Rating: Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus raised his price target on Five Below, citing the viral Mystery Dumpling toy trend as the driver of accelerating comp momentum across the retailer's store base.

The Thesis: Five Below is the primary retail beneficiary of the Mystery Dumpling craze, a viral squishy bao-shaped toy some have compared to last year’s Labubu fad. Hanus projects 100-200 basis points of incremental comp growth if demand persists through 2026.

The Follow-On: Google Trends shows "Five Below" search interest up 100% annually in March, and gaining pace each month. Watch whether this toy cycle proves more durable than Labubu.

Are you bullish or bearish on Five Below (FIVE) over the next 12 months?

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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

🕊️ | Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal and issued its own five-point counteroffer, including a demand for recognized sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

⚖️ | A jury found Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL) liable for building addictive platforms that harmed a minor, awarding $3M in damages.

🥇 | The Trump administration repatriated $100M in Venezuelan gold, the first shipment of precious metals between the two countries in more than 20 years.

⛽ | The EPA approved temporary nationwide sales of E15 ethanol-blended fuel in a bid to ease gas prices elevated by the Iran war.

✈️ | Clear Secure (YOU) recorded app downloads tripled last year's pace in March as TSA staffing shortages from the shutdown drove a surge in memberships.

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on CoreWeave (CRWV) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐻 Bearish — “Has gotten ahead of itself and has a cash drain.”

STREET SHEET RESEARCH MEMBERS ONLY

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