HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET
SpaceX (SPCX) has torched more than $500B in market cap since its June IPO, and it reports its first quarter as a public company tomorrow. Short sellers are up $8.3B on the trade, and an insider lockup expires Thursday.
Elon Musk may have proven he can land a booster. Sticking the landing on Wall Street is another matter.
🟩 | US stocks surged today, starting August strong with a fresh ATH for the DJIA, lifted by further tech gains and moderating oil prices.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Amazon (AMZN) topped $3T in market value for the first time today as its stock reached a record high on strong cloud growth.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: GameStop (GME) tumbled after swapping $1.4B of convertible notes for equity.
— Brooks & The Street Sheet Team
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WILL THE US AND IRAN STRIKE A NUCLEAR DEAL?
President Trump called off strikes on Iran late Saturday, and Kalshi traders promptly repriced peace. Odds of a nuclear deal before January 2027 nearly doubled overnight to 29%. Still, every market except “January 2029” still sits below 50% — trader shorthand for “I’ll believe it when the ink dries.”
Market Movers
ALIBABA, ASTRAZENECA, CORNING
📈 | Alibaba (BABA) climbed after unveiling Qwen3.8-Max, one of its most powerful AI models yet.
📈 | Corning (GLW) rallied on an upgrade to Buy after a recent selloff.
📉 | eBay (EBAY) fell on a downgrade to Underweight over its Depop acquisition.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
GOING AROUND IN CRCLS
Stock Spotlight
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Squaring the Circle
James Faucette is circling Circle in red ink.
The Morgan Stanley analyst cut the cryptocurrency firm to Underweight, arguing that stablecoin utility is far more limited than the headline activity numbers imply.
Stable In Name Only
Most stablecoin volume, Faucette says, is still just crypto traders shuffling crypto around, not bonafide commerce.
The analyst points to McKinsey figures showing roughly $35T of adjusted stablecoin volume, of which only about $390B counts as identifiable payments. That is about 1% of adjusted activity, and he suspects even that flatters the case.
Cross-border B2B and remittances are growing, he concedes. Just not fast enough to build the durable balances Circle's reserve-income model leans on.
Split Decision
TD Cowen (TD) went the other way, initiating coverage at Buy with an $82 target. Analyst Bryan Bergin likes USDC circulation growth, high-margin fee revenue and Arc optionality, and thinks the Street is underrating Circle's shift into a full financial infrastructure platform.
The rest of Wall Street is equally divided. 16 of 30 analysts rate the stock Hold or lower. Shares are in the red year to date, with bitcoin down 28% in 2026 and the Clarity Act stuck in Congress. Everything’s extreme in the crypto sphere, even the spread.
Do you own any shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🛢️ Trump said ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) made “too much money” off the Iran war and should cut prices at the pump.
⚖️ 25 US states sued the Trump administration over the high tariffs levied against some 60 trading partners.
🏭 July ISM manufacturing came in at 55.6, its best reading since May 2022, with prices still elevated and September rate-hike odds near 65%.
💴 The dollar sank to near 155.20 yen after Trump and Japan's finance minister confirmed a joint currency intervention.
🎬 Imax (IMAX) hit an all-time high on a third straight weekend of $50M-plus global ticket sales for Christopher Nolan's “The Odyssey.”
FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you have any exposure to Publicis Groupe (PUBGY)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
