HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET
October's jobs report soared past Street expectations, with 165K new hires and unemployment down to 4.1%. But the enthusiastic market observers might be missing the forest for the trees.
The report also revealed that the average job search now runs past 27 weeks, the longest outside the pandemic since 2016. Some of the workers who filled those new positions may have been waiting half a year for them.
What’s more, 2M Americans have been sidelined long enough to exhaust their benefits. Low-hire, low-fire is “good” news… as long as you already have a job.
🟨 | US stocks were mixed today, but the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1%, clawing back some gains from Thursday’s rout as investors bought the dip on Big Tech.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: DraftKings (DKNG) tumbled after a wider-than-expected Q3 loss and a revenue miss.
— Brooks & The Street Sheet Team
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
Market Movers
NVIDIA, ATLASSIAN, MODERNA
📈 | Nvidia (NVDA) rebounded and returned to positive territory for 2026.
📉 | Atlassian (TEAM) forecast a 14% drop in data center revenue this quarter.
📈 | Moderna (MRNA) smashed Q3 estimates and raised its full-year sales growth outlook.
📉 | Axon Enterprise (AXON) missed Q3 estimates and issued weak Q4 guidance.
📈 | JFrog (FROG) raised full-year guidance well above consensus.
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A-DON’T-BE
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Creative Differences
Investors bought the dip on tech, software, and AI firms today. But Citi says they should leave this one in the trench.
The bank turned bearish on Adobe, downgrading the software giant to Sell. Analyst Tyler Radke sees downside risk to consensus growth estimates heading into fiscal 2027, as incoming CEO Anil Chakravarthy takes the helm in December amid key leadership vacancies.
Layers of Pressure
Radke expects a deliberate strategic reset of Adobe's Creative business, with near-term growth likely footing the bill.
According to Citi, the squeeze comes from several directions. A growing crop of AI-integrated software rivals is chipping away at Adobe's turf, and macro uncertainty makes share gains harder to come by in the near term.
But the firm's bigger worry is annual recurring revenue. As Adobe leans into monthly active user growth, Radke expects ARR to grow roughly 5% a year through fiscal 2028, which lands 200-300 basis points below consensus.
Majority Report
Wall Street mostly disagrees.
Of the 39 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it a Hold, 10 call Adobe a Buy or Strong Buy, and six say Underperform. Shares are deep in the red year-to-date.
For now, the Street is content to hold. But Citi’s scratch disks are full.
Do you own shares of Adobe (ADBE)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🏦 | Odds of a December Fed rate hike rose to 73% after the hot October jobs report.
🏗️ | National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett says the AI data center build-out will continue despite voters restricting it in 46 ballot initiatives.
🍁 | Canadian PM Mark Carney welcomed the Democrats' push to repeal President Trump's tariffs on Canada.
🏛️ | Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will chair the Senate Banking Committee, with private equity and crypto as early targets.
THURSDAY'S POLL RESULTS
Do you own shares of JetBlue Airways (JBLU)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “Kind of reminds me of that 1980's airline whose stock went to a quarter, then a dollar or two, then finally to zero. Not interested in a JetBlue repeat.”
