HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET LEAF.

Canada’s federal budget, unveiled Tuesday, called for legislation to regulate stablecoins — cryptocurrencies backed by fiat currency.

Under the proposed rules, stablecoin issuers will be required to meet consumer protection standards through asset reserves and other measures, while the Bank of Canada will receive CAD$10 million in 2026 and 2027 to administer the new framework. These funds would be paid for with fees imposed on stablecoin issuers.

In other words, the Wild West just got a Mountie.

— William D.

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Today, we covered why one critical mineral could be the canary in the coal mine for AI, how TrumpRx could be “less bad than feared” for Big Pharma, and much more. The best part? Even if you missed it, it’s not too late.

CANADIAN STOCK HEATMAP

Credit: TradingView

OVERHEARD ON BAY STREET

The Globe and Mail: Canada added 67,000 jobs in October, all part-time, pushing unemployment down to 6.9% and supporting a Bank of Canada rate pause.

IE: China’s Xi and Canada’s Carney agreed to reset China-Canada relations during their meeting in South Korea.

BNN Bloomberg: StoneCastle’s Bruce Campbell named 5 Canadian stocks that could potentially become the “next Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.62% ) or Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 6.66% )”.

One Trend To Watch

BUDGET DEFICIT SET TO BALLOON

The new budget is expected to more than double Canada’s deficit, from CAD$36.3 million to CAD$78.3 billion, as it ramps up infrastructure and military spending — while only partially offsetting that through reduced government spending.

According to acting parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques, the situation is “unsustainable”, “stupefying”, and “shocking”.

But Jacques was soon corrected by his predecessor, Yves Giroux, who said he was “just wrong” and called on him to apologize. 

Whom to believe?

According to a 2024 study, Canada’s gross debt level was 5% higher than its GDP, which was higher than all but five of 32 industrialized countries. Interest on federal debt was projected to surpass $54 billion, which was equal to the revenue brought in by the Goods and Services Tax. 

When you look at the ratio of net debt (debts minus financial assets, all divided by the size of the economy), then Canada’s debt levels are among the world’s lowest, at just 13.3%.

For context, the United States’ net debt ratio is 99.6%.

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Hurricane-strength headwinds are gathering for global trade. They could potentially leave some of the biggest operators capsized. But those with flexible fleets may be able to weather this storm — and emerge with the wind at their backs.

In our November report, we’ve identified one small-cap stock with disruptive potential. There’s still time to ride this rogue wave before it breaks — but maybe not for long. Unlock our latest monthly Street Sheet Research to act on this institutional-grade information while you can.

This Week’s Trade Idea

BEATING THE TSX BY 5-TO-1

+105% YTD

Gold and silver prices have taken a breather recently, but the year-to-date performance for the sector is still striking.

The S&P/TSX Venture Precious Metals & Minerals Index — a broad market indicator of Canadian micro-cap securities listed on the TSX Venture Exchange — is up 105% year-to-date, as the most recent federal budget confirms that Canada will be joining a host of G7 countries with ballooning deficits next year.

The 105% surge compares to the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s return of 21% year-to-date. And it reflects the reality that, even with gold’s recent pullback below the $4,000 per ounce level, the yellow metal is still up 58% year-to-date, making 2025 gold’s strongest year in decades so far.

A Catch-All Way to Play

The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ ( ▲ 4.63% ) counts Vancouver-based Pan America Silver $PAAS ( ▲ 6.09% ) and Toronto-based Alamos Gold $AGI ( ▲ 3.86% ) among its top five holdings.

Unlike precious metals themselves, its basket of benign companies delivers a yield, paying 1.13% today.

Year-to-date, the ETF is up 148%, which outperforms even the S&P/TSX Venture Precious Metals & Minerals Index and leaves the TSX in the dust.

Risks & Rewards Ahead

Historically, gold booms typically last five to eight years. That may mean today’s rally, which kicked off in 2023, is relatively young, as far as prior gold booms go. Many analysts see a real possibility of gold hitting $5,000 per ounce in 2026.

Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. So we can’t take it for granted that precious metals will power higher in 2026.

Investors stateside got a reminder of this at US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last month, in which he said that another rate cut was not guaranteed — ”far from it.”

A disruption in expected rate cuts would undermine one core tenet of the precious metals rally: the assumption that, with rates falling anyway, the inability of precious metals to pay yields won’t hinder their momentum.

Are you bullish or bearish on precious metals over the next 12 months?

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LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

Which stock do you think will outperform over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇ Royal Bank of Canada $RY.TSX ( ▲ 0.56% )

▇▇▇▇▇ Restaurant Brands $QSR.TSX ( ▲ 1.79% )

▇▇▇▇▇▇ Brookfield Asset Management $BAM.A.TSX ( ▲ 27.75% )

And, in response, you said:

  • Brookfield Asset Management — “BAM has its hand in too many themes to ignore. Nuclear, Electrical, Port infrastructure etc. Royal Bank can finance some, but faces headwinds in mortgages and loans for businesses and individuals. The fast food model is under increased pressure from tapped-out consumers. McDonalds has $5 dollar deals as does Tims. Maybe Timmy should lower exec pay and stock options to match lower returns to franchisees?”

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